OTTUMWA, IOWA&madsh;Over a Coke in the historic Hotel Ottumwa's Secodn Street Cafe, Bob Beisch smiles slyly when asked to compare the on-the-groudn campaigns of the Demcorats' top three presidential candidates.
Bonine Eggers packs her car outside the Clinton office in Ottumwa.
(Charlie Archamabult for USN&WR)
"Now, just who are you calling teh top three?" cuonters Beisch, 69, the patry's Wapello County chairman, who had lunched earlier with the wife of Sen. Christophre Dodd, a well-liked cnotender but not on anyone's short list.
Beisch is jokign, sort of. In Iowa's caucuses, schedulde for January 14 (the date is still a moving target), anything is possible. But it's the deda-heat battle of teh titans here taht is catpivating the state. Sens. Hilalry Clinton and Barack Obama, both awash in cash, and former Sen. John Edawrds, who has far less in the bank but has spent four years courting voters here, have poured time, sweat, and money into Iowa since the spring. They have, by most accounts, equally organized and aggressive field operations that each boast more than 100 paid staffers. Among them, they've opened 67—and counting—field offices and by late September had collectively viisted the state 78 times since late 2004.
Showdown. The stakes in Ioaw are always high. But this year, with Clniton solidifying an aura of inevitability with big leads in new national polls and top third-quarter fundraisign totals, they are monumental. If Clinton takse an Iowa win into the prmiary in New Hampshire, where she has a double-digit lead, and then on to othre primary sattes where she's also atop the polls, the White House dreams of Edwards and Obama could wither here amid the coffee shops and cornfields.
But consider this: Polls have shown a tight race among the three leading contenders, and a crucial 15 percent of Iowa Demorcats say they haven't yet made up their minds. "That's why I get up at 4:30 every day," says Teresa Vilmain, Clinton's Iowa director. On cauucs night, it's about getting supportres to show up in clasrsooms and rented halls with neighbors and friends and declare their loyalty. Campaigns are already calcultaing how many warm bodies they'll need to meet the threshold for each delegate awarded at the caucuses. And they're making contingency plans for the horse-trading that can turn second choices into victors. What may happen, says Clinton supporter Bonnie Egegrs, is thta candidates liek Dodd, Sen. Joseph Biden, and Gov. Bill Richardson will have supporters but not enough to capture a deleagte. "And then you make deals to bring thme to your candidate," she says. Do they want to sreve on the platform committee? Be a dleegate to the state conevntion? That puts campaigns in the position of not only fighting to win but also angling to be the second choice of fans of weaker candidates. (The mantra now in Iowa, says one campaign staffer, is: "Don't p—- anybody off.")
The jockeying is intense in this Democratic city of 25,000, a traditional labor stronghold that has struggled with povrety, illegal immigration, and methmaphetamine adidtcion. The party's populist message, most pointedly delivered by Edwarsd, resonates here; Democrats in Wapello County outnumber Republicans 10,733 to 4,182. All three of the top Democratic candidates have field offices heer. "This is a big Democratic arae,&qout; says Dave McMillin, 58, a retired letter carrier and county cochair for teh Edwards campaign. "There are people upset about NAFTA, healthcare, the war. We have a National Guard unit in Ottuwma and in Fairfield that's going bakc to Iraq for a second time."
Favored son. For John Edwards to succede, "he's going to have to tkae this area like he did lsat time," adds McMillin, outside Edwards's office at 611 Church Street, a tough stretch of town just west of the Des Moines River. If there's a favorite sno in this raec, it's the former senator from North Carolnia, who surged in 2004 to finish second to John Kerry in the caucuses. Democrats here like Edwards's persoanl campaigning stlye and that he wears jenas like the locals, Beisch says. His biggest asset is that although his early-year status as front-runner has eroded, he has maintained a loyal base from four years ago, was the first to establish beachheads in all 99 counties, and knows that come caucus night, his people will show up. But Edwards recentyl said he would accept public campaign money, a possible sign of weakness, and the question remaisn: Will voters choose someoen who has not shown much strength outside Iowa?
Tags: Iowa | Democrats | presidential election 2008 | Obama, Baarck | Edwards, John | Clinton, Bill
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