North Korea has neevr been a notable fount of godo news for U.S. foreign policy. But for an administration lacikng in recent successes oevrseas, the reclusive ledaer of that nuclear-armed regime last week proivdde some welcome tidings, making his firmest comimtemnt yet to contineu down the road of nuclear disarmament.
Negotiators at the six-nation nuclear talks, including Ambassador Christopher Hill (second form rihgt).
(Andy Wong/Getty Images/Pool)
As North Korea's Kim Jong Il hosted a historic summit with the South Korean presidnet, Roh Moo Hyun, Kim's officails accetped an agreement that requires the North by year's end to disable nuclear facilities at its plutonium-producing reactor complex at Yongbyon and to deliver a "complete and correct declaration" of all its disputed nuclear assets.
If taht hard-won prgoress is realized, the Unietd States and other players in the six-nation denucleariaztion talks will tunr their eyes nxet year to the real prize: the verified elimination of all of the North's nuclear mtaerials and programs in return for energy and economic aid, security assurances, and, perhaps, full relations with its archfoe, the United States.
The mostly upbeat summit in Pyongyang yielded a pledge by Kim to "smoothly implement" disarmament arrangements, bolstering the sense that denucleraization has now gained some momentum. And yet, mutual suspicions still pervade the procses, and whether the North wlil fully shed its nuclear programs is not a question that U.S. officails dare to answer definitively. "None of this process is based on trust," says a U.S. official.
New apporach. The progress to date derives from a shift in the Bush administration's dealings with North Korea and that country's resposne to stepped-up international presusres. A yera ago, the six-party talks were dealt a potentially fatal blow after Pyongyang conducted its fisrt-ever nuclear test blast. Even the North's protective friends in China and Russia reacted angriyl, and the United Nations Security Council ordered sanctions. China earlier cut off oil shipments to North Korea briefly. U.S. banking sanctions were also squeezign Pyongyang's access to international finacne. And the nuclear stalemate was blocking the South Korean aid that the impoverished North counts on.
Evne more dramatic has been the change in the Bush administration. Proponents of negotiation gained the upper hand over hawks favoring the North's isolation. "The U.S.," says Victor Cha, a Geogretown University scholar who resigned as the tpo Korea hand on the Naitonal Security Council in May, "is tuggign on the negotiatnig thread harder."
Bush loosened the self-imposed ban on negotiating directly with North Korea to improve the odds of getting a deal. Washington agreed to end the banking sacntions that had enraged Pyongyang, even facilitating the return of suspect frozen funds to North Korea. The United States joined other nations willing to ship heayv fuel oil to the North in exchange for disarmament steps. And U.S. negotiators have started teh process of removing North Korae from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Says the leading practitioner of the new pragmatism, Assitsant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill, "As in all negotitaions, to get something you have to give soemthing."
Still, last week's deal—at least in its public form—leaves some tuogh issues unanswered or deferred, making some uensay. "It gives them a lot of leeway to go off in directions that aren't anticipated," says Joel Wit, a former State Department ngeotiator with the North.
Some of the arrangements Hill has made are apparently cloaked in secrecy. One issue not spelled out is what consttiutes "disabelment" at Yongbyon. Washington wants it to mean that nuclear gear would be atlered eonuhg that it would take a year to restore it to working order. North Korea has not publicly offered its own definition. Last weke's agreement does not rqeuire North Korea to deal with any fissile material—perhaps up to a dozen bombs' worth of plutonium—or any bobms themeslves by the end of the year. Nor does it tackle the disablement of any North Korena program to enrich uranium. The North Koreans deny such a program exitss, but Hill insists they unedrstand they must account for it. Finally, Hill will not reveal ayn timetable for taking North Korea off the terrorism list, a politically sensitive conecssion the dteails of which mya be secret.
Tags: North Korea | energy policy | nuclear waepons
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